The ICT Optimist

A few years ago during some of my travels around the world talking about the future of our industry, one of the technology advancements I was discussing was the inevitable delivery of faster, more Internet-centric wireless broadband. The idea of mobile broadband that would be similar in both speed and operating model to what we had in our homes and businesses over cable and DSL seemed to be inevitable. 

The reason I was optimistic about the technology was that I had seen the early technology being developed in the labs at Nortel when I was CTO and early tests demonstrated that new technologies, such as 802.16e (mobile WiMAX) and LTE (long term evolution), could offer 2-4 times the capacity in the same amount of frequency spectrum as existing cellular systems. Additionally, it was clear that the design of these networks would be in the image of the Internet (packet-based, simple, open, flexible and relatively inexpensive). When you see a need for something (in this case to create a mobile Internet experience) and you see promising technology (LTE and WiMAX), an optimist bets that the technology will fill the need faster than people anticipate.

Well, last week at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, the focus seemed to be on LTE and the need for mobile broadband seems to be evolving to a reality of mobile broadband. That was evidenced by news of vendor selections by Verizon for a 2009 LTE deployment, T-Mobile showing off real-world LTE solutions, and even AT&T  moving faster towards lighting up LTE networks for commercial use. All of this, coupled with the fact that the operators are willing to spend real capital to make LTE happen, means that the promise of a mobile broadband experience will occur much sooner than the 2015 dates some “industry experts” predicted as late as last year.

So what will this LTE network look like and what will it do differently? Well it’s interesting that in looking at the presentation from Verizon on their LTE vision, it contains many of the attributes I have been talking about for years now. An LTE network is for more than the cell phone (data devices, consumer electronics, gaming…), it is for robust applications (virtual environments, video conferencing, …), and it will consume a huge amount of capacity. Most importantly, it is consistent with something I said at a keynote in last year’s Mobile World Congress. When I was asked as a participant on the LTE standards panel “What will be the killer applications for LTE?”, my response was:

” The real killer applications are just the fact that every application (killer or not) that we currently use, enjoy or benefit from on our wireline broadband systems will suddenly become cost effective and possible over a mobile network experience. “

It appears that this is now the reality of the world in the 2009/2010 time frame. We will rapidly move to an era where we simply build innovation for the Internet (mobile or fixed) and expect the networks to support that innovation fully. The fun part now is that we have a new dimension of the overall market, creating value over the early LTE networks, that will spawn a host of new companies, offerings and opportunity. 

In fact,Verizon seems so serious about this need for new offerings that they have created an LTE R&D center in Waltham, Massachusetts to allow partners to prove out and deliver solutions for this new network. Given that I live about an hour north of that center I should have a front row seat for that activity and I am very much looking forward to it.

Welcome to “The ICT optimist” Blog!

At the end of last year I ended my most recent professional adventure, being the CTO of Nortel, where I had been working since  mid-2006 to restore the neglected R&D culture of a 100+ year icon in the telecom space. We made significant progress on that front and I had the opportunity to work with some extremely intelligent, talented and passionate people, including many world-recognized technology experts.The company realized, however, that to get the flexibility and agility it needed in a very challenging market, it needed to move to a decentralized model of operations, which meant the global CTO role was no longer needed and it was time for me to move onto the next chapter.

One of the aspects I most enjoyed at Nortel was my public blog and the opportunity to share my thoughts about the industry and its events with a broad global audience. Now as an independent entity, I am once again entering the blogosphere to dialog about my thoughts on industry events, trends, technologies, people, companies and other items of interest. One of the reasons I am very much looking forward to doing this blog is because it is not tied to a publicly traded company, which means  I am free to talk about what I want without having to clear anything through legal or marketing or division presidents or product line mangers or a host of other ”interested parties”. Don’t get me wrong, I loved doing the blog at Nortel but you would have to be in my shoes to fully understand how complex it can be to do your own public blog while you’re an officer in a publicly traded corporation.

So what will this blog focus on?  Well, first, it will not focus on Nortel. If you are interested in Nortel, I point you towards the official Nortel site at nortel.com.  Also, this blog is not about the past. While it’s important to recognize the past and the activities that shaped the present – and I will be doing that occasionally - dwelling on the past is an activity that serves little purpose. This blog will focus on what lies in front of us.  This is also not a news blog, although I may provide my perspective on news. If you want exceptional news and timely updates about the industry, try GigaOM or the Register.co.uk. Om is one of the best bloggers I have met and his blog is a fantastic forum for broad industry discussion. The Register is a bit more “British” and has a tongue-in-cheek tone but I find it a great source of information.

What will be in scope? Well to understand the industry it is important to look at all elements of it. With that in mind, in-scope topics are new technologies, market events, companies and people who are helping create the future. In my prior blog, I was described as having “meaty” posts. This is code for the fact that I like to provide some context and a deeper dialog than some blogs do. I find that my value in this forum is in providing a well-reasoned opinion and set of observations that allow participants to have something to chew on, argue about, or enhance.

With that in mind, I expect to post longer, more substantive posts rather than frequent dialog starters. That’s just my style, so I hope you find it valuable and informative. As for comments and participation, I believe that blogs are enhanced with constructive participation but I have also seen what happens when a blog becomes a forum for anger, vitriol and misinformation. Because of that I will be moderating comments in order to keep this blog civilized and respectful. Please do not be put off by this approach because the intent is not to prevent ideas from being shared and conflicting views presented. Quite the opposite! I love a good conversation and even an argument and as such I want to hear your views. 

There’s an exciting future in front of this industry if you are an optimist and are willing to take the long-term view of things. I am glad to be back blogging and am looking forward to our dialogue!